Abstract Detail

Ecology

Tuominen, L.K. [1].

Systems Modeling as a Process-Based Planning Tool for Managing Plant Species in Situ.

Effective species-centered management requires building and maintaining insititutional knowledge of favorable habitat conditions, life history, and intra- and interspecific ecological interactions for the species of interest. One approach to comprehensively and systematically developing such knowledge is through the process of building and using species-centered ecological models. This process, sometimes called Institutionalized Model Making (IMM), is complementary with the collection of field and physiological data and represents a means of synthesizing ecological knowledge from the deluge of incoming ecological data. The ultimate goal of the modeling process, when applied to species management, is to create simulations that can provide insights for adaptation and improved sustainability under a variety of future scenarios. Modeling and simulation methods are most useful in projecting the outcomes of scenarios with little precedent but extensive baseline data. In other words, data from ongoing field monitoring can feed into and is complementary to the future-orientation of modeling and simulation, in the sense that the latter can more rapidly provide a quantitative assessment of likely future ecological conditions. Under conditions where extensive baseline data is unavailable, models can be populated with best initial estimates. Sensititivity analysis allows the identification of which parameters are likely to have the strongest influence on the species of interest and/or entire system. Thus, modeling can also provide insights directing researchers towards further study of those "unknowns" most likely to reduce overall uncertainty. Since our planet has entered the Anthropocene, we now aim to understand how thousands of plant species and their coevolutionary counterparts are likely to respond to strong perturbations and increased local stochasticity in several key abiotic factors, including temperature, humidity, soil moisture. In this poster, I will provide examples of opportunities to employ systems modeling for managing plant species in situ under conditions of anthropogenic ecological change.

1 - Metropolitan State University, Natural Sciences Department, 700 East Seventh Street, St. Paul, MN, 55106, USA

Keywords:
ecosystem simulation
Anthropocene
Institutionalized Model Making
ecological management
species-centered modeling
ecological synthesis.

Presentation Type: Poster
Session: P, Ecology Section Posters
Location: Exhibit Hall/Savannah International Trade and Convention Center
Date: Monday, August 1st, 2016
Time: 5:30 PM This poster will be presented at 6:15 pm. The Poster Session runs from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm. Posters with odd poster numbers are presented at 5:30 pm, and posters with even poster numbers are presented at 6:15 pm.
Number: PEC004
Abstract ID:106
Candidate for Awards:None