Abstract Detail

Pteridology

Chambers, Sally [1], Baiser, Benjamin [2], Sessa, Emily Butler [1].

Distributions and environmental divergences of Floridian ferns.

Florida is a peninsular state in the southeastern United States characterized by subtropical and tropical climates. The state spans a latitudinal gradient that generates natural variation in climatic conditions, such as annual temperature and precipitation. Currently, there are roughly 150 fern species known to occur in Florida, with most of the species diversity occurring in the southern portion of the state. This is likely because tropical ferns found in Central and South America can extend their ranges into similar climate regimes that characterize south Florida. Species distribution models can be used to examine the contemporary geographic ranges of these species and the climatic factors that may be responsible for these distribution patterns. These models can also be used to forecast anticipated shifts in distribution in response to global climate change. We are using species distribution models to quantify the climatic niches of all fern species found in Florida, and to examine what environmental factors are driving the distribution of each species. We are also projecting these distribution models into the future to predict species’ responses to future climatic changes. Preliminary results from a principal components analysis indicate that species diverge in their tolerance for warmer temperatures and greater amounts of precipitation. These divergences display a phylogenetic pattern of niche conservatism, with species from the same genus occupying similar temperatures or precipitation regimes. Thus far, projected distributions for the year 2070 indicate that very few species will expand their distributions in the future, but the vast majority of Floridian fern species will experience severe reductions in their geographic distributions.

1 - University of Florida, Biology, PO Box 118525, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA
2 - University of Florida, Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, PO Box 110430, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA

Keywords:
ferns
species distribution models
climate change
ecological niche modeling.

Presentation Type: Oral Paper
Session: 7, Pteridological Section/AFS
Location: 203/Savannah International Trade and Convention Center
Date: Monday, August 1st, 2016
Time: 8:30 AM
Number: 7002
Abstract ID:540
Candidate for Awards:None