Create your own conference schedule! Click here for full instructions

Abstract Detail


Spalink, Daniel [1], Kriebel, Ricardo [2], Givnish, Thomas J [3], Feist, Mary Ann [4], Waller, Don [5], Cameron, Ken [6], Sytsma, Ken [3].

Disassembly and reassembly of the Wisconsin flora: phylogenetic and geographic patterns of diversity in a changing climate.

Of the myriad threats to species diversity, the impact of climate change on the composition, function, and location of plant communities is among those of greatest concern. To understand the long-term implications of climate change, scientists often use a species-centric, and rarely a clade-based, approach to assess the past, present, and future distributions of taxa based on their ecological tolerances. Here, we instead take a phylofloristic approach to analyze the phylogenetic and geographic patterns of species change of all vascular plants currently found in Wisconsin. We use two new datasets, including a completed phylogeny of the Wisconsin vascular flora and over 350,000 georeferenced records from the newly digitized Wisconsin State Herbarium. We first calculated the mean phylogenetic distance (MPD) of species in over 70,000 geographically structured assemblages throughout the state, and tested whether these assemblages are phylogenetically clustered or over-dispersed. We then supplemented our dataset to include every vascular plant species in the northeastern United States and Canada. We constructed species distribution models for each of the 4300 species in this dataset using a suite of present day climatic and edaphic variables, and then projected these models 50 years into the future. We calculated the total area of species ranges in Wisconsin both now and in 2070, assessed phylogenetic and geographic patterns of species projected gain and loss, and determined the projected turnover and change in phylogenetic structure in each of the 70,000 assemblages. Based on these analyses, assemblages north of Wisconsin’s Tension Zone are phylogenetically over-dispersed but generally less species rich than those to the south, a pattern primarily driven by the abundance of Lycopodiophyta in the north. Over the next 50 years, our models predict large-scale extirpation of northern species within Wisconsin and widespread increases in ranges of southern species. Substantial species turnover is expected throughout the state, with a net increase in regional diversity as Wisconsin becomes more climatically suitable for southern and eastern species. These analyses should provide a useful baseline for targeted conservation strategies, by identifying specific lineages and geographic assemblages that are most at risk. Our datasets and approaches should also be directly applicable to the analyses of similar patterns throughout North America.

Log in to add this item to your schedule

1 - University Of Wisconsin-Madison, Department Of Botany, 430 Lincoln Drive, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
2 - Botany Department, UW-Madison, 357 East 201 St Apt. 3f, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
3 - University Of Wisconsin, Department Of Botany, Birge Hall, 430 Lincoln Drive, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
4 - University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Botany, B169 Birge Hall, 430 Lincoln Drive, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706-1361, USA
5 - Univeristy of Wisconsin-Madison, Botany, Birge Hall, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
6 - University Of Wisconsin - Madison, Botany, 430 Lincoln Drive, Madison, WI, 53706, USA

climate change
community phylogeny
ecological niche modeling
phylogenetic community structure
phylogenetic distance
phylogenetic turnover.

Presentation Type: Oral Paper
Session: 21, Cooley Awards I
Location: 201/Savannah International Trade and Convention Center
Date: Tuesday, August 2nd, 2016
Time: 11:45 AM
Number: 21015
Abstract ID:605
Candidate for Awards:George R. Cooley Award

Copyright © 2000-2016, Botanical Society of America. All rights reserved